Pandemic - impact on the real estate market. Forecast 2020-2022
After the actual curtailment of the mortgage lending program, real demand is a key factor determining the state of the real estate market. In the primary and secondary markets, in the first half of 2020, purchasing activity decreased by 40%. Today, pent-up demand has appeared in the real estate market.
Housing prices after weakening quarantine in the secondary market at first even rushed up, but after a month of testing they could not stand it and started to roll back, and fell about 5-7% of the pre-pandemic level. Hryvnia prices for new housing after a temporary correction returned to the level of the beginning of quarantine.
What about the prices and what will be the housing prices
To analyze today's realities, we need to understand that we have not yet observed a similar type of crisis in the global economy. Previously, the crises were caused by an “inflated” loan portfolio, which bursting introduced at the peak of the real estate market, which was “inflated” with credit money. Thus, due to the inability to repay loan obligations, a large supply of problematic objects appeared on the market.
In today's realities, there are practically no credit apartments on the market. Why is everyone talking about the crisis. Let's make it clear:
- The fact is that a segment with a 3% return, i.e. Entrepreneurs who worked almost to zero were not the first to withstand pandemic restrictions and quarantine. For the first month of quarantine, according to the tax service of Ukraine, the number of Fops decreased by 13.3 thousand. Thus, the financial turnover in the country is reduced, which leads to a decrease in fees to the tax treasury of Ukraine.
WHAT PREPARES FOR US AUTUMN?
According to information from WHO, a new pandemic surge is expected in the fall. Based on the "taken" measures by the Ministry of Health of Ukraine in anticipation of the fall, we must rely on the reintroduction of onranichnosti up to a harsh self-isolation of citizens. Such a “maneuver” will lead to an additional correction in financial turnover and job cuts in Ukraine, which in turn cannot but affect the real estate market. As we already observed in the spring, in the autumn quarantine the sales market will “fall asleep” and the rental market will again be hit. After the quarantine result will be on the face - an additional amount of business will curtail and leave. Financial turnover will decrease further.
WHAT WILL BE WITH DEMAND?
DEMAND is in fact the presence of a buyer in the market. Time will do its own thing! With each week, buyers will be less and less. Price correction (decrease) will periodically warm up the market. But, the fact is that the general pandemic trends will put pressure on the number of buyers in Ukraine as a whole.
What could change the financial decline of the economy? Of course, many economists would begin to propose a number of time-tested measures, ranging from a cabinet change and a half to the introduction of temporary benefits for various types of economic activity. But what are they doing in the world?
WHAT DO OTHER COUNTRIES DO TO MITIGATE THE CURRENT CRISIS?
In the United States, England, Germany, France, China, India and many other countries, doctors are working on the invention of an antiviral vaccine. More than 150 teams of scientists around the world are trying to develop a vaccine against coronavirus. Scientists in many countries around the world are working on the development of candidate vaccines in parallel, so the likelihood that one of them will be effective increases significantly. For example, Russia today already has a vaccine and has conducted positive human trials.
"Russia has successfully completed the testing of the world's first coronavirus vaccine," said Vadim Tarasov, director of the Institute of Translational Medicine and Biotechnology at Sechenov University, earlier this week. In fact, experts say, we are only talking about vaccine safety tests, and even those were conducted on a small group of military personnel. Director of the center. Gamalei Alexander Gunzburg claims that the vaccine will go into "civil circulation" in Russia at the end of August.
Thus, Russia hopes to diversify the pressure of the pandemic on its economy. Ukraine will act according to the WHO protocol. Recall that WHO informed the world that the probable recovery of the economies of countries to a level before a pandemic assessment will come in 2022. Therefore, the year 2021 will not be a growth of economies, but a transitional one. The first half will be a fall in the summer - the fixation of the bottom, and from the fall of 2021 a weak growth will begin towards the restoration of pre-pandemic indicators.